For a country so isolated from the rest of the world due to our geographic location, relying on foreign crude oil imports to continue arriving on our shores for 80% of our fuel is alarmingly dangerous.
You read that right – we Aussies rely on foreign crude for 80% of our transport liquid fuel. Forget about the ‘Looney-Tunes’ optimists with their retarded ‘debunking’ ADHD episodes, this is serious to the long-term sustainability of our country and way of life.
This, from the Fuel Line by John Cadogan in the August edition of Wheels magazine:
Dr Laurie Sparke, Holden’s former Advanced Engineering boss, says LPG could be one key toward Australia’s future energy security. Dr Sparke has gone on the record in several forums, claiming that within five to ten years, Australia may not be able to buy oil – at any price – if rising global demand for the stuff continues.
“Australia is going to be the first in the western world to lose access to oil,” he said. “This is a national issue. It has to be faced by everyone – industry and government – otherwise we are going to end up in serious strife.”
The basic problem: oil basically cannot be produced faster than it currently is. Supply is fixed. Demand – especially from the burgeoning economy of China – is accelerating. Currently China has 25 cars for every 1000 of its population. When – not ‘if’ – it achieves per capita car ownership similar to ours
(700 cars per 1000) it will double the number of cars on Earth (to 1.8 billion; currently 900 million).
So if the number of cars on Earth doubles, it’s obvious to even blind Freddy, that demand will rise substantially. That’s demand for fuel, to power double the amount of cars worldwide, as well as the crude required to build that many vehicles and of course, ship them around the world.
Factor in higher than anticipated depletion rates, coupled with crippled investment flow into new projects and you can see the gap, right? That gap will shortly threaten us like we have never been threatened before.
I can already hear the ADHD Debunkers screaming out, “Haven’t you, like, heard of electric cars, man? They’re going to, like drop demand for crude because batteries are the solution bro.” Really? I’ll allow Lionel Badal to shoot that one down in flames. From his ‘Peak Oil for Dummies’ article, posted on Seeking Alpha last week:
There is no easy, present, solution to the crisis. Alternatives to oil are still far from being a feasible replacement; hydrogen for example would require 30 to 50 years to replace oil economies [35].
Meanwhile, the automobile industry is now planning to develop electric cars in the near future. While the first electric cars are expected to come on line in 2010-12, in order to replace 50% of the car fleet, the world would need between 10 to 20 years [36].
Besides, as manufacturing a single car requires at least 20 barrels of oil [37], once oil production starts to decline, in 2011-2013[38], it will increasingly become difficult to develop the electric car on a massive scale.
In fact, the closer we get to Peak Oil, the more difficult a massive and costly emergency plan to develop alternative energies will become.
Come on Australia, time may have already run out. If we are to awaken the general population to the reality of peak oil and its devastating effects, you must get involved and help out. Many of the alternatives to crude are not actually alternatives at all when observed objectively, in the light of day.
You can get a great start in the right direction by educating yourself with real information by reading Lionel’s complete Peak Oil for Dummies article. From this piece, you may then site the footnotes and engage in further reading and study.
Lionel’s piece is a standout as far as I’m concerned, most importantly because it contains a Colin Campbell prediction from back in 2006, which clearly leaves egg on the face of the peak oil deniers. Judge it for yourself:
I think we are facing an oil price shock, 100 or 200 dollars a barrel, an economic recession that cuts demand, and I will not be at all surprised if a fall in demand would make the price collapse again. So we might be back to 20 or 30 dollars a barrel next year perhaps. And so you have a price shock, a recession, a recovery, hits again the falling capacity limit, another price shock. And so I think that in the next few years, we have a sequence of vicious circles and gradually the reality of the situation will filter through. We are on for a very volatile few years with enormous economic consequences. [43]
By studying the right information by trusted sources, your preparations will be the right kind of preparations. The kind that may just save a life.
Don’t be fooled or lead astray by people too scared to face the truth of the impending peak oil catastrophe. Keep your head screwed on and stay focused on the facts. Join the dots together until you get a crystal clear picture in your own mind and then join the fight to bring peak oil awareness to the masses.
We need every soldier we can get!
I hope to hear from you soon.
Michael
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